o his supporters, Texas Governor George W. Bush is a the best chance the Republicans have of taking back 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue after eight long years of Bill Clinton. To critics, though, the namesake son of former President George Bush is vague on many policy issues, and is doing his utmost to conceal his true intentions about hot-button topics, especially the rights of women to legal abortion services.

   Though he has declared himself a "compassionate conservative," Bush is sending contradictory signs about his stand on the abortion question. His record on that topic, as well as issues related to the separation of church and state, is raising concerns with many groups.

   For separationists, the prospect of George Bush in the White House recalls his recent signing of the Texas Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA), legislation which requires government to employ a cumbersome "compelling interest/least restrictive means" test when dealing with faith-based groups and practices. Bush is also a supporter of vouchers for private and religious schools, which critics see as a major step in the public funding of churches and other sectarian groups. The Texas Governor also supports initiatives like the American Community Renewal Act and other measures that will make it easier for faith-based social outreaches to receive public monies, and meld their message of faith and salvation into efforts to help the poor, prison inmates, drug and alcohol abusers or other groups. Indeed, Texas has become a laboratory in giving religious ministries unparalleled access to the criminal justice system; Chuck Colson's Prison Ministry Fellowship already operates an entire unit at one state prison and is aiming a potent religious message at inmates. Colson's group is picking up the $2 million tab for the first phase of the program, but hopes that at the end of the two-year trial period, public monies will support the operation.

   And there is the prospect that Bush, or any other winner in the year 2000 presidential run, will likely end up selecting as many as three U.S. Supreme Court justices in the course of a four year term. Though he has not been grilled on the issue, Bush is likely to follow the conservative line against so-called "judicial activism," the perception that the high court has been "creating law" by extending rights in certain areas, overruling the fiat of individual states in key legal suits, and applying federal laws, including the Bill of Rights, against state actions. Many of the court's decisions since the early 1960s, especially those which helped to end prayer and Bible verse recitation in public schools (ABINGTON TOWNSHIP v. SCHEMPP, MURRAY v. CURLETT, ENGEL v. VITALE) are often cited as examples of the court's "activism."

   The coloration of the bench, and the mathematics of appointments, makes it likely that the next U.S. President could set a judicial tone for the nation lasting decades. Chief Justice William Rehnquist, at 74, is expected to retire around 2001, but may linger if asked to remain on the bench by a Republican President. Whereas Rehnquist has declared that separation of church and state is a legal "myth," the establishment clause has found more of a friend in Justice John Paul Stevens. At 79, he is the court's major proponent of First Amendment separation, but health concerns could force him into retirement. Next on the age ladder is Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, 69, an appointee from the Reagan era. "Rumors of ill health are persistently knocked down," notes a profile from USA TODAY. She is considered a moderate, and a key swing vote. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, was appointed by President Clinton in 1993. She has no public plans to retire, but her goal of being elevated to Chief Justice may change that if Bush or another Republican wins in the year 2000.

   Barring calamity, the other justices are likely to stay on through any one or two term president. Antonin Scalia is 63, and the conservative stalwart of the court. Justice Anthony Kennedy at 62 has rendered a number of decisions which have upset the religious right. David Souter, 50, was appointed in 1990 by then-President George Bush. There is speculation that if son George W. wins the White House, he could end up appointing Souter to the top position. Clarence Thomas is only 51, and tells friends that he intends to serve until 2034. And Justice Steven Breyer, age 60, can be expected to stay and continue his judicial sparring with Scalia and the other court conservatives.

   In addition, the new president could end up appointing 150 or more federal judges, a fact that will likely impact the coloration of the Appellate and District courts throughout the nation.

   Even before hitting the campaign trail in preparation for the primary season, Bush was "sucking up the oxygen" -- a phrase used to describe raising huge sums of money and leaving little behind for his nomination competition -- and all the while managing to avoid articulating his stand on many issues. Last week, he raised a whopping $2 million from Washington, D.C. beltway Republicans who plopped down $1,000 a ticket to eat hot dogs and listen to Bush declare, "I'm proud to be a compassionate conservative. On this ground, I will take my stand."

   But some critics say that Bush is trying to cover his tracks, especially on the question of abortion rights. Confusion -- and deliberate obfuscation -- of the governor's position may be why he is running strong in the polls among women.

"For separationists, the prospect of George Bush in the White House recalls his recent signing of the Texas Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA), legislatin which requires government to employ a cumbersome "compelling interest/least restrictive means" test when dealing with faith-based groups and practices..."

   Bush has raised concern among some anti-choice groups and candidates that he is "soft" on the issue, especially in light of his recent statement that "America is not ready" for a government ban on abortion. Gary Bauer of the Family Research Council, and a nomination contender, charges that Bush's statements are evidence "of a complete surrender by the governor on an issue that has been central to the Republican Party for 25 years." Already, religious conservatives are reexamining their support for Bush, and demanding to know who he might select as a vice presidential running mate. One fear is that the GOP second-slot might include a pro-choice moderate, such as New Jersey Governor Christine Whitman. During a stump through Pennsylvania, though, Bush schmoozed with Gov. Tom Ridge, who some see as an abortion rights supporter. Ridge, though, recently spoke out in favor of parental consent laws for minors seeking abortions, and like Bush is an outspoken booster of voucher and other aid-to-religion schemes. When questioned by reporters about using abortion as a litmus test in selecting a potential running mate, Bush declared, "I rule nothing out." He also became defensive when confronted with Bauer's charge that he had "sold out" on the abortion question, declaring, "I think it's a little presumptive for somebody who doesn't even have the nomination yet to be laying out the list of potential vice presidents."

   But as Bush hits the campaign trail, pro-choice groups including the National Abortion and Reproductive Rights Action League (NARAL) are working to pin down the front runner on where exactly he stands. Ads begin this week in Iowa and New Hampshire laying out the record of Bush as well as candidate Elizabeth Dole. Kay Michelman of NARAL charged, "Presidential candidates have taken just the first steps of their campaigns, but already some are stepping away from their records and positions on choice... They are trying to hide their extreme views because they know those views are not shared by the majority of the American people."

   For Bush, the record is clearly anti-choice and antiabortion. NARAL cites a number of statements the governor has made both in and out of office. In 1994, for instance, he told the Dallas Morning News (10/22/94) that he "will do everything in my power to restrict abortions." Two years later, he joined Christian Coalition and other groups in moving to block attempts to alter the Republican Platform to include statements of tolerance on abortion, and diversity within the party. Bush declared that it was "very important" for the GOP "to be viewed as the pro-life party." As Governor of Texas, Bush went on to proclaim January, 1998 as a "Month of Prayer to End Abortion," and this year he is fighting to preserve a state ban on funding abortions for low income women by suggesting that the Texas Constitution does not protect the right to choose.

   On the campaign stump and under the media spotlight, Bush continues to promote his vague position as a "compassionate" politicians. When asked by Associated Press on March 14, 1999 how he stood on the abortion question, Bush replied, "That's a hypothetical question."

   Even before throwing his hat in the ring, Bush has counted on the support of his close friend televangelist Pat Robertson. After the gaffe that "Americans are not ready" for a total ban on abortion rights, Robertson moved quickly to assure his religious conservative allies that Bush was "profoundly pro-life." Bush has not always towed the line of his "good friend" Pat Robertson -- he refused, for instance, to grant clemency for born-again-death row killer Karla Faye Tucker despite Robertson's plea that she be permitted to live because she had "found Jesus." But Christian Coalition and Robertson were squarely in the Bush camp during the Texas gubernatorial race. Robertson has already declared Bush fit for consideration among a field of GOP candidates including financier Steve Forbes, Elizabeth Dole, former Vice President Dan Quayle and others.

   Bush's brand of social conservatism, and willingness to appear less strident on the abortion rights question -- a necessity for smuggling a blatant religious right agenda into the White House -- also fits with Robertson's strategy of incremental gains. This separates Robertson and the Christian Coalition from the more disenchanted elements of the GOP religious wing which have thrown their support behind dark-horse candidates like Pat Buchanan or even Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch. Bush has raised so much money, in fact, that Buchanan has charged that the Texas Governor is a sellout candidate for "establishment" Republicans, and threatens the party's intransigent position on abortion and other culture war issues.

   But Robertson may know better. When he invited Don Hodel two years ago to serve as President of Christian Coalition, he told him, "My dear friend, I want to hold out to you the possibility of selecting the next president of the United States." Hodel is no longer on board the Robertson political machine, and there has a been a major shakeup at Christian Coalition. Robertson may still be able to make the offer, though, and is seems to be betting his political future on a governor from Texas.

[text only]