A new survey claims that up to 40% of people listen to Christian radio station. But like studies which purport to measure church attendance, is such a high number accurate and riddled with methodological bias?

all it the old "4-in-10 Syndrome." For years, pollsters like George Gallup (known for his evangelical Christian beliefs) insisted that up to 40% of Americans regularly attended church services. That figure -- which suggested that over 104 million Americans made the trek to weekly religious events -- seemed inordinately high, especially in light of church closings, complaints from major denominational groups of stagnant or declining revenue, and the pervasive "empty pew" phenomenon that saw churches across the nation shutting their doors.

   Indeed, recent studies show that the 40% is vastly inflated for numerous reasons. People being questioned reportedly expressed reluctance to admit to an interviewer that they were not regular church goers. In May, a study of diaries completed over a thirty-year period showed what the Washington Post described as "a discrepancy between the diaries and the polls," and suggested that "many Americans have been misreporting how they spend their Sunday mornings, inflating estimates of church attendance by perhaps as much as a third.

   Even more revealing according to sociologist Stanley Presser of the University of Maryland and his research partner, Linda Stinson of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, was the fact that the number of Americans lying about church going habits has been increasing. The pair place actual church attendance at around 26 percent as of 1994, a significant falloff from the claimed 42% reported from 1965.

And there are other signs of inflated church attendance figures. At the recent fraud trial of a prominent Baptist leader, it was learned that officials sold phony membership lists to insurance companies making it appear that their congregation was more numerous than it actually was.    But now, the old 40% is back again, and being used to support "surprising" findings concerning the listenership of Christian radio stations. The story begins with a recent dispatch from Religion News Service, noting "Four out of 10 adults listen to Christian radio in a typical week, a survey by Barna Research Group has found." Barna's own spin statement claimed that the study "shows that a large percentage of listeners are not born again Christians," and that Christian radio programming researches "millions more viewers" than high rated show hosted by Howard Stern, Rush Limbaugh, Laura Schlesinger and Michael Reagan. Again, the figure was repeated -- that "four out of ten adults (39%) listed to some Christian radio programming during the course of a typical week," a total of 75 to 80 million adults. Barna also provided a breakdown of this audience:

   ¶    29% of adults listen to "Christian teaching or preaching programming in a typical week."

   ¶    43% of adults age 53 or older listen to such programming.

   ¶    34% of women tune in, 39% of residents in the South and 57% of African Americans also listen to such programs.

   Barna's survey reported measured attitudes from 1015 adults in a telephone poll conducted last July. The research firms founder, George Barna, summarized the findings in a report section titled "The Electronic Church Lives On," where he gushed, "Who would have imagined that more than 10 million people who never attend church services listen with some frequency to Christian radio broadcasting... Or that the same number of men listens to Christian radio as attend Christian churches in a typical week?"

   Whatever is producing such statistical results, figures from other measurement services don't confirm anywhere near as large a listenership. In fact, the surveys which advertisers and broadcasters use to determine the size and nature of their listening audience suggest that only about 2% of radio listeners are tuning in to radio preachers and Christian musicians. The authoritative Duncan's American Radio report, for instance, shows the "Religion-Gospel" category at 2.16%, ahead of only all-sports channels (1.91%), classical music (1.54%) and "others/unknown") at 0.20%. Country, news talk, oldies and classics, Hispanic, soft adult contemporary, news talk and jazz categories are well ahead of the religion-gospel content.

   In addition, the top 20 stations in the country ranked by size of listener audience are all non-religious. The format reflects the above categories, as well as "Full Service/Talk," Black, and Rock or News.

   Were Barna's claims of a surprisingly high listener audience for Christian radio stations really the case, one would expect to possibly see a shift in advertising revenues into that new market, probably away from other formats. Businesses would rush to the opportunity to exploit this new audience. Average Person Ratings (APRs) for radio stations measured by Duncan's and another system, Arbitron, are declining -- but not because people are flocking to radio-wave preaching and choir singing. The Duncan Report points to consolidation in the radio industry along with declining budgets for promotion and station marketing; declines in the number of both classical and easy listening formats; a trend away from "localness" in favor of networks and satellite-delivered programming; "super-segmentation" designed to cater to a smaller core of listeners; heavier advertising loads. Nowhere on the audience radar screen, however, is there evidence of Americans flocking in large numbers to the religious stations.

   Gallup poll measurements of church attendance of other faith issues have been called into question by recent studies, especially the 40% figure of church attendance. Critics of those statistics have pointed to Gallup's affiliation with Christian evangelical causes and involvement in events such as the National Day or Prayer or National Bible Week. How objective is George Barna's firm?

   Barna heads the Ventura, CA.-based firm, but has also served as a pastor in southern California. He is the author of numerous books targeting religious groups, including "The Second Coming of the Church," "The Power of Vision," and "The Habits of Highly Effective Churches." Clients have included some business groups including The Walt Disney Company and First Interstate Bank, but most signing up for Barna's marketing research are religious -- the Billy Graham Ministry, Bill Bright's Campus Crusade for Christ, The Navigators, Youth for Christ and Chuck Colson's Prison Fellowship.

   None of this necessarily means that Barna Research Group, founded in 1984, is biased when it comes to reporting the size of the faith community in America, whether in surveys measuring church attendance or listenership for religious radio stations. One recent Barna survey, for instance, stated "Christianity Showing No Visible Signs of a Nationwide Revival," adding, "the annual national tracking study of religious behavior and beliefs ... reveals that the much discussed and anticipated spiritual revival is not discernible through common measures of spirituality." Barna's methodology uses standard statistical measurements, including breaking down data into quantifiable categories.

   But Barna may be plagued by some of the hidden or unsuspected factors which seem to come into play when researchers begin asking questions about faith, religion and church attendance. For instance, Barna reported slightly higher figures than the Gallup organization for those responding to a query about attending church "within the past seven days." The figure was measured at 49% in 1991, bottomed out at 37% in 1996, and last year came in at 43%. Other researchers, though, have questioned these figures, pointing to the fact that people seem to lie outright or exaggerate their rates of church attendance. Follow-up studies do not confirm those high rates of reported church attendance. The same biases could be entering into other surveys measuring belief in a god, whether the respondent considers himself/herself to be a Christian, or even which radio station they happen to listen to.

   These biases require that everyone be skeptical, especially when the often- reported "4-in-10" figure is cited. With many Americans, religious belief or the lack of it remains a sensitive topic, especially in a culture where church attendance is promoted as a virtue, and disbelief or lack of interest in religion is considered a personal flaw. Real indictators of what exactly people think and believe in respect to religion -- and how they might act on those convictions -- continue to be difficult to measure and highly elusive. It remains doubtful that a simple telephone survey or knock on the door will provide the accurate figures that many of us seek.

(Thanks to Larry Mundinger for background used in this story -- ed.)

[text only]