here's no doubt about who Pat Robertson wants to see win the February 19 South Carolina GOP primary and November's general election for President.

   For months, Robertson and his Christian Coalition have been touting Texas Gov. George W. Bush as the candidate d'jour for religious conservatives. Six months ago, the GOP field was filled with potential suitors for Robertson's endorsement, including millionaire publisher Steve Forbes, Family Research Council head Gary Bauer, columnist Pat Buchanan and former Reagan administration official Alan Keyes. After a poor showing in Iowa, Bauer was first to drop out. Forbes followed suit two weeks ago, throwing in the towel after a dismal finish in the New Hampshire primary where he found himself bested by Arizona Sen. John McCain and George Bush.

   ¶    As early as June, Robertson was sending clear signals that he preferred his close friend Bush over candidates seeking his imprimatur for the GOP presidential nod. Rank-and-file members of Christian Coalition and other groups gravitated toward Forbes, who had spent considerable time and money wooing the religious right. When Bush seemed to stumble over a remark suggesting that "America is not ready" for a ban on abortion, Robertson quickly leaped to his defense. Indeed, the Texas Governor was "profoundly pro-life," Robertson assured nervous supporters.

   ¶    Appearing on CNN's "Late Edition With Wolf Blitzer" this past Sunday, Robertson again underscored his selection for GOP standard bearer, and blasted Sen. John McCain.

   "If he (McCain) becomes the party's nominee, the Christian Coalition would sit this vote out," Robertson declared. "We would not support him, and you would see a lot of Christian support for the Republican Party go out the door."

   ¶    Symbols, including the Confederate Flag which flies above the state capitol are important in the South Carolina race. Both Bush and McCain have sidestepped the issue, suggesting that the decision on whether to display the stars-and-bars is best left to the state. Another evocative icon has emerged, though, in the form of Bob Jones University. Described by the Washington Post as "a symbol of the South's troubled racial politics for many years," the school prohibits interracial dating, and lost its tax-exempt status in the 1970s for refusing to admit blacks. The whites-only admissions policy has been dropped, but the school still bans any dating across the color line.

   Bush eagerly appeared at Bob Jones University on Feb. 2, within hours of being trounced in the New Hampshire primary by McCain. His talk there generated considerable flak from Democrats, but had the desired effect with South Carolina's religious conservatives. Also as a result of his appearance at the controversial school, Bush picked up a ringing endorsement from Bob Taylor, the Bob Jones University dean who had previously supported Gary Bauer.

   Yesterday, John McCain announced that he would not hold a campaign rally at Bob Jones University.

   "If I were there," McCain told the Washington Post, "I would condemn openly the policies of Bob Jones, because I would want to make sure that everybody knew that this kind of thing is not American..."

   ¶    While media is questioning or downplaying the clout of Robertson and his Christian Coalition, we see no evidence that the group has lost much of its political strength -- especially in the deep south. Robertson's machine was instrumental in wooing 45 of 45 former county coordinators for Steve Forbes' presidential effort into the Bush camp since the publisher dropped out of the GOP race.

   ¶    Bush has also picked up support from the National Right to Life Committee and South Carolina Citizens for Life, two powerful anti-choice groups. The organizations have joined forces to run ads accusing McCain of uncertainty on the abortion issue. NRLC was the recipient of a recent $250,000 "gift" from a campaign slush fund set up by the Republican National Committee. The signal here? It is unlikely that the 2000 GOP platform will soften its plank calling for a constitutional ban on abortion.

   ¶    According to Atlanta pollster Whit Ayers, between 25 percent and 35 percent of South Carolina's Republicans identify themselves with the religious right. As former Christian Coalition head Ralph Reed -- now a campaign handler for Bush -- has noted, though, this strength is amplified because religious conservatives turn out in high percentages for caucuses, primaries and elections. They also tend to be active as precinct volunteers, and are heavily represented in key posts with the local and state GOP apparatus.

   ¶    Pundits remain divided over the strength of Christian Coalition and the religious right in general. Skeptics often point to the recent staff turnover within Robertson's organization, and reports of declining membership and contributions. We see little evidence, though, that the Coalition -- lubricated with Robertson's considerable personal wealth -- has lost much of its impact. Staff resignations and reassignments are a fact of life inside political action groups. If anything, Robertson -- by supporting the front runner, George W. Bush -- has identified himself even more with the GOP establishment, rather than being an "outsider" as he was in 1988 when he ran for the presidential nomination. The rougher the campaign, the higher the return for Robertson and the Coalition should George W. Bush lock up the nomination, and even the presidency.

   ¶    Should Bush prevail, one question facing political analysts will be why Robertson chose to abandoned ideological allies like Keyes, Bauer and even Steve Forbes who had worked for years to court the GOP religious right. The answer lies in Robertson's adroit political instincts, maturing, and willingness to "give and take" in hopes of achieving his goals incrementally. Robertson also realizes that the next President of the United States could name as many as three or four justices to the Supreme Court. While this has not always proven to be a reliable way of influencing policy beyond the political grave, it is a nod to the power of the court, especially with key issues regarding federalism and state-church separation so much in the public limelight.

   Robertson is also sensitive to American history, and the fact that third party efforts often fail. A Bush victory would further wed the GOP and the Christian Coalition, certainly giving Robertson and his associates more than "a seat at the table" in matters of social policy.

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