s it the end of the world? Could it be the beginning of a New Age for Humanity? Will terrorists or apocalyptic, ju-ju warriors strike? Or will News Year's Eve be just one big blowout with a surfeit of media hype, overpriced bashes, and Y2K burnout.

   It all depends on who you ask. The Big Event, the calendric change from 1999 to the year 2000, is very much an artifact of popular convention, imagination and arbitrary dating, but it has taken on almost hypnotic dimensions for diverse segments of the human community. Even countries which do not consider New Years to mark the "real" year 2000 are caught up in the excitement, whether it is preparations to stop terrorists or handle cash-flush tourists. Long gone, too, is the hoary debate over whether the year 2000 or 2001 really marks the accurate end of the twentieth century and the beginning of a new millennium in human affairs. The answer is in on that question; whatever calendric perfectionists and academicians may say, popular culture and media have pronounced judgment, and elevated tomorrow night as a temporal benchmark for the human race.

    What to expect?

   ¶    Even with the terrorist alerts emanating from the U.S. - Canadian border, Israel -- and, specifically, Jerusalem -- is Ground Zero for Y2K. The country is flooded with religious pilgrims, some of them possible cultists who embrace Christian fundamentalism, and believe that the Third Temple of Jerusalem must be rebuilt in order to usher in the Millennium and the Coming of Jesus Christ.

   The focus of their concern is the Temple Mount, a parcel of land on which originally stood the Second Temple, razed in AD 70. It is now the key religious locus in the region, and the site of the al-Aqsa and Dome of the Rock mosques -- the "Noble Sanctuary" for Muslims. Israeli authorities are on guard against religious and political extremists who may try to attack the Islamic shrines as a prelude to the apocalypse.

   "Temple Mount obviously is one of the most sensitive areas, and as far as I'm concerned, needs to be protected even at the expense of other more traditional (police) assignments," Israeli Public Security Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami told Reuters news service.

   The total of Israeli police and troops mobilized to provide security throughout Israel has now risen to over 20,000. Beginning tomorrow night, the giant gates leading to the Temple Mount will be locked, although an adjacent esplanade is expected to be packed with 400,000 Muslims gathering for midday prayers on the fourth and most important Friday of the holy month of Ramadan.

   Another sign of concern is Israeli officials preparing for a wave of "Jerusalem Syndrome," a behavioral malady where religious pilgrims, stunned and overwhelmed by the sites and themes of the Holy Land, suddenly take on the persona of a Biblical-era figure like Jesus, Peter or Mary. Police in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv have undergone special "sensitivity training" to help them distinguish among regular tourists, fervent religious pilgrims, and those succumbing to Jerusalem Syndrome.

   At Kfar Shaul mental hospital, acute intervention director Gregory Katz says that there was a 50% rise in reported cases of Jerusalem Syndrome this year, and that the next few days could see hundreds of new incidents involving this delusional behavior.

    Another popular tourist destination is Megiddo, Israel, site of the "Har Megiddo" hilltop referred to in the Bible as Armageddon. Some interpret the Book of Revelation to predict an enormous collision between the Children of Light and the Forces of Darkness; many Christians, though, argue over the precise sequence of events and how this would fit in with other occurrences such as the Second Coming of Jesus.

   A reporter from the Boston Globe noted in today's edition that the steady stream of groups to Armageddon includes casual tourists, archeological enthusiasts and a "small minority of biblical literalists... For this last group of Christian believers, tomorrow night's millennial turn of the calendar has sparked the belief that the ultimate battle may well be imminent..."

   One literalist from Texas told the Globe, "I believe this is the place where the battle that will end the world will happen. I believe there is a lot that tells us that we are very close to the time when these events will occur... a matter of days."

   Another man, his arms covered with apocalyptic prison tattoos, told the Globe that he came from his home in New Mexico to witness the ultimate "spiritual war" that he thinks will commence tomorrow evening.

   Regurgitating ancient apocalyptic phrases, he warned, "You are either a child of light or a child of darkness, and we will find out tomorrow..."

   Megiddo has already been the site of battles which any Biblical-era person could well have considered an omen of the apocalypse. In World War I, British armies bested the Ottoman army, and in 1948 troops collided in the Arab-Israeli war. Adding to the millennial aura is the fact that the FBI's Terrorism Analysis Unit gave the colorful name "Project Megiddo" to its recent report on potential Y2K political and religious violence.

   ¶    Will the media frenzy over the millennium, along with widespread government disaster preparations excite unstable individuals or create a wave of "copy cat" terrorists looking to make a political or religious statement?

   The internet is Rumor Central, and abuzz with reports about real and imagined preparations for some kind of doomsday scenario. Numerous sites offer survival tips for everything from temporary dislocations to total social collapse, TEOTWAWKI -- an abbreviated way of saying "The End Of The World As We Know It." Others predict BITR, a "Bump In The Road."

    * One Christian news service reports that President Clinton and the governors of all 50 states have already prepared "canned" declarations of emergency to impose martial law. Some militia extremists say that the government plans to use Y2K as an excuse to flood the country with foreign troops, and set up a One World Government.

    * The Federal Emergency Management Agency has established 10 regional centers, supposedly to monitor potential catastrophes. Robert Adamick, the associate director for FEMA told Associated Press that the agency is "confident that nothing serious will happen, but we are prepared to respond just like we would for any other natural disaster or any other emergency situation..."

   Over at the Centers for Disease Control and the Defense Department, key installations have reportedly been issued gas masks and antidotes in the event of a biological or chemical attack. We also note a slew of local news reports from throughout the country, with cities, towns and counties establishing "command centers," bunkers and "emergency offices." The list of possible what-ifs is both legion and daunting, covering everything from natural calamity to local civil disturbances, cyber-terrorism, "a national security emergency" or some other undefined event.

   Worth noting -- if you are a Utah resident, you might feel safer (or possibly more at risk) knowing that Sen. Bob Bennett (Chairman of the Senate Committee on Y2K), Gov. Mike Leavitt, banking officials and representatives of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints -- the Mormons -- will be hunkering down with FBI agents, phone company technicians and FEMA bureaucrats.

   ¶    Terrorists and the "Millennium Option."

   For the first time, a new phrase has entered the news cycle in connection with the alleged plans of Saudi terrorist Osama bin Laden. "Millennium Option" appears in a release from APB News, a reporting agency with close ties to law enforcement and intelligence agencies. The MO is said to be part of bin Laden's "worldwide web of violence, in which he and his radical followers plan to wreak havoc on Americans and American-based targets with growing intensity as the millennium races to a close."

   An unidentified APB source declared, "He (bin Laden) has all the money he needs to buy the implements of mass destruction, train his agents and deploy his assets... He has millions of sympathetic people from which to recruit. It's a lot scarier than the public knows..."

   So far, though, there seem to be problems with this type of scenario. One is that the link between Ahmed Ressam, the man arrested at the Canadian-U.S. border with bomb-making devices, and bin Laden remains unclear. Ressam and his associates are part of the Groupe Islamique Armee or GIA, which has been carrying out a terrorist campaign to establish a Muslim theocracy in Algeria.

   None of this is keeping the State Department's top terrorism official at home or in some underground base, though. Michael A. Sheehan said that he will be celebrating New Year's Eve on the National Mall in D.C. "People have questioned whether our warnings were hyped," he told APB. "But I don't think so ... you could be hit by a bus."

   The story headline is different, though, for an interview with former CIA director James Woolsey -- "Expect Y2K Terrorism." He declares that the "odds of an attack are good," but peppers his warnings with phrases like "it's hard to predict." Woolsey also praises what he calls "homeland defense" as a positive option.

   ¶    The headlines in the American press speak for themselves in terms of providing insight on how people are reacting at the midnight of the century. "People taking precautions prudently, without panic," noted USA TODAY. "Adrenaline-hungry revelers plan to toast the millennium with a rush," boasted another story.

   ¶    We note a proliferation of local news reports about "dirty apocalypticism," covert preparations in the form of "stocking up" with food, bottled water, matches, candles, gasoline and other supplies. One news broadcast interviewed several shoppers at a bustling grocery store who said their unusually full shopping carts reflected sensible concerns "just in case something happens."

    So, what will happen?

   Just about any unusual event will likely be perceived by some group, somewhere -- be it an emergency command bunker, a pulpit or a newsroom -- as having a tie with the millennial ethos. Political terrorists could simply skip all of the heightened security preparations, and wait for a more opportune time in the future.

   Fringe apocalyptic sects, especially those off the cultural radar screen, may well find the advent of a popular millennium as a time to offer a statement of some kind, ranging from the benign to the outright violent. There have been many events associated with apocalyptic belief, though, that have already happened, without apparent regard for the date of December 31, 1999. Some groups may see the entire year 2000, perhaps the arrival of 2001, or some other future date as eschatologically significant.

   Those expecting the arrival of Jesus Christ or the fulfillment of some other prophetic claim will likely be disappointed. The no-show of Jesus at a gate in Jerusalem (a "messiahcam" awaits this news event...), or a calm night on the plain of Armageddon -- perhaps punctuated by happy if intoxicated secular revelers -- will simply convince believers that they picked the wrong date, not that their basic theological scenario was flawed. The "failure of prophecy" has usually forced apocalyptic groups to reset their eschatological timetable, to see the gap between prophetic discourse and reality as a technical glitch. William Miller, the 19th century American apocalyptic who unsuccessfully predicted TEOTWAWKI on three separate dates, was undeterred by the lack of prophetic fulfillment. Out of the Millerite movement arose new sects, including the Seventh Day Adventists and, later, groups like the Jehovah's Witnesses.

   The hour draws nearer, though. For some, the arrival of the popular millennium is an excuse for partying and camaraderie, or perhaps an opportunity for reflection. Others may see a time to strike, to participate in an apocalyptic drama of their own creation. Most of us, though, may well be glad to wake up on January 1, 2000 hopeful that the wave of millennial hype has washed over us, and receded into memory.

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