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FLASHLINEHATCH POISED TO ANNOUNCE PRESIDENTIAL RUN -- IN CASE BUSH STUMBLES
Web Posted: July 2, 1999
Hatch is overshadowed in media coverage and resources by a host of other candidates now chasing the GOP nomination. Front runner Texas Gov. George W. Bush has "sucked up the oxygen," raising record amounts of cash in his quest for the presidency. Others like publisher Steve Forbes and former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander have had their campaigns in place for years. Hatch enters this contest on the ground floor with other struggling hopefuls like Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Robert Smith of New Hampshire. The first three or four primaries could well prune this field down to two or three, with Bush a likely first place runner. But who knows? Hatch is already positioning himself not so much as a "dark horse" who comes out of obscurity when the party is deadlocked, but a "clutch candidate" Republicans can turn to when and if Bush stumbles. Like Bill Clinton, the Texas governor has a thick Teflon coating -- whether it can last into primary season remains to be seen. Right now the pundits are writing off the 65-year old Utah Senate veteran, but a lot can happen between now and the Philly GOP convention next year. Over the weekend, Hatch told some of the talking head programs including "Fox News Sunday" that while Bush presently enjoys a commanding lead in the polls, he faces a "high learning curve" on national issues. Questions posed by reporters about international issues like the Balkans suggest that Bush lacks expertise in foreign affairs as well. "He believes -- and certainly this is a possibility -- that George W. Bush may stumble, and if he does stumble (Hatch) has the credentials just as valuable as anyone else in the field," observed Sen. Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah), who has been helping Elizabeth Dole's campaign effort. Others like political analyst Stu Rothenberg say that it is "impossible" for Hatch to capture the GOP nomination. Or is it? Echoes of Gary Hart can be heard, the man who had the nomination and the presidency locked up, until a photographer snapped a revealing shot of a curvaceous Donna Rice on board a party boat with the White House hopeful.
Scanning the list of Republican contenders is like looking at an
invite list to a Christian Coalition awards banquet. Lamar Alexander
and Steve Forbes have both been courting the religious right, even
revising and strengthening their positions on culture war issues like
abortion. But though he starting late in the game, Hatch already has a potentially strong base in Utah, thanks to the powerful Mormon Church. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) is one of the fastest growing denominations in the country, and Hatch -- sometimes referred to as "The Senator From LDS" -- is plugged in to the sect's sprawling network of voters and potential financial backers. On most issues, Hatch passes the religious right litmus test of political reliability. He told the New York Times that he begins each day reading passages from the Bible; he is spearheading the controversial Religious Liberty Protection Act, and Hatch endeared himself to many conservatives on the national scene when he defended a chastised Clarence Thomas against the sex-charged accusations of Anita Hill in 1991. But his lifelong involvement with the Mormon Church could be a problem down the line, even though Mike Russell of Christian Coalition describes Hatch as "a solid conservative" who is now part of a field of candidates who can "excite religious conservatives."
Still, Mormonism remains a touchy subject, especially among American Christians. Some fundamentalists consider the LDS to be a "sect" which teaches false doctrines. The Mormon faith is based, in part, on "another testament of Jesus" which weaves an elaborate tale of lost tribes, wandering groups, and a ministry by Jesus Christ in "the new world." Although the LDS church takes a strong stand against abortion, homosexuality and other bete noirs in common with the religious right, many Christians feel uncomfortable with the esoteric doctrines, bizarre rituals and origins of the Mormon faith.
A serious Hatch candidacy could split the religious right, especially if Christian conservatives suddenly find that they are uncomfortable with a candidate who, while passing their political litmus test on issues like abortion or school prayer, is wide of the mark on theological correctness. And more: the Tribune notes that for the LDS church, Hatch may serve "as a barometer of how well the religion has been accepted into modern American culture." John West a political scientist and senior fellow with the conservative Discovery Institute, said that the American voters "really haven't had a lot of experience with alternative or other religions in the presidential race." He admonishes that evangelical Christians "have theological problems with Mormons," and that "it's not easy to say how that will play" in a serious campaign.
Dr. Lewis Wolfson of American University sees another potential problem with a Hatch candidacy. He told the Tribune that religion "is obviously going to be a factor" if Hatch begins showing unexpected strength in the primaries. The Utah senator is likely to face questions on Mormon doctrine, and the perception that the LDS is a cult. And more, says Wolfson. "The question is whether a Mormon can ignore his own church on some core issues that he would have to face as president." Religion may help Orrin Hatch, though, particularly in primary races in the American west where LDS influence is felt. Rod Julander of Weber State University's political science department thinks that Hatch "will do better than expected," and adds that heavy Mormon voting strength in California "will make him a real candidate." As the Mormon question comes into play, the church will likely distance itself -- at least publicly -- from the Hatch candidacy. Even without big primary wins, Orrin Hatch could play another role when Republicans hunker down in Philadelphia. Gov. Bush may indeed have a cakewalk to the nomination, but Hatch could prove to be a suitable running mate, bridging the gap between the GOP moderates and the religious right wing. On the hill, Hatch enjoys a reputation as a negotiator who is able to talk even to liberal democrats like Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass. But Hatch is also likely to remain intransigent on the key culture war issues like abortion rights, gays in the military, school prayer and other questions of the role of religious faith in society. From the perspective of First Amendment separation, we can expect few positive surprises from The Senator From LDS.
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